A Century of Influenza: Is the World Prepared for the Next Pandemic?

• Published in: Georgetown journal of international affairs 2019-10, Vol.20 (1), p.163-169
• Main Authors: Stoto, Michael A., LeBlanc, Normand, Darling, Nellie, Gasior, Julia, Harmsen, Mikaela, Zipfel, Casey
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air transportation; Air travel; Aircraft; Epidemiology; Fatalities; Health risks; Influenza; International regulations; Pandemics; Public health; Quarantine; Risk communication; Science & Technology; Simulation
• ISSN: 1526-0054; 2471-8831; 2471-8831
• DOI: 10.1353/gia.2019.0028

The simulation highlighted several areas that were key to the simulation, that would likely also arise in the case of an influenza pandemic today: identifying epidemiological characteristics of the novel pandemic strain, coordinating globally in accord with the International Health Regulations, implementing a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, applying non-pharmaceutical interventions, assessing availability and distribution of medical countermeasures, maintaining standards of care in a crisis, and communicating risk information locally. Yet, if they mutate and become more transmissible, we would face a catastrophic pandemic, especially considering [End Page 164] the highly connected nature of today's global society, where air travel could easily spread pandemic influenza around the world in days. [...]Vietnam needed to know if they had a pandemic influenza strain on their hands, but struggled with the laboratory capacity to clearly identify if this was the case. A PHEIC is defined by the World Health Organization as an extraordinary event that is determined to constitute a public health risk to other states through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.5 The World Health Organization did declare a PHEIC because the situation met the WHO's criteria of (1) being serious, sudden, unusual, or unexpected; (2) carrying implications for public health beyond the affected state's national border, and (3) requiring immediate international attention. School closures, however, remain controversial due to their high costs (especially for parents who have to stay home from work to care for their children) and potential for social disruption.10 Discussions during the simulation centered around local decisions regarding school closings, quarantine, and other NPIs.