Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Several European countries have suspended the inoculation of the AstraZeneca vaccine out of suspicion that it causes deep vein thrombosis. In this letter, we report some Fermi estimates performed using a stochastic model aimed at making a risk–benefit analysis of the interruption of the delivery of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.) N.Y.), 2021-04, Vol.31 (4), p.041105-041105
Main Authors: Faranda, Davide, Alberti, Tommaso, Arutkin, Maxence, Lembo, Valerio, Lucarini, Valerio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Dynamical Systems
Immunization
Immunology
Life Sciences
Mathematics
Medical Physics
Physics
Risk analysis
Santé publique et épidémiologie
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Side effects
Stochastic models
Thrombosis
Vaccines
Vaccinology
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Summary:Several European countries have suspended the inoculation of the AstraZeneca vaccine out of suspicion that it causes deep vein thrombosis. In this letter, we report some Fermi estimates performed using a stochastic model aimed at making a risk–benefit analysis of the interruption of the delivery of the AstraZeneca vaccine in France and Italy. Our results clearly show that excess deaths due to the interruption of the vaccination campaign injections largely overrun those due to thrombosis even in worst case scenarios of frequency and gravity of the vaccine side effects.
ISSN:1054-1500
1089-7682
DOI:10.1063/5.0050887