Forecasting container throughput with long short-term memory networks

• Published in: Industrial management + data systems 2020-03, Vol.120 (3), p.425-441
• Main Authors: Shankar, Sonali, Ilavarasan, P. Vigneswara, Punia, Sushil, Singh, Surya Prakash
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accuracy; Autoregressive models; Benchmarks; Containers; Decomposition; Deep learning; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Empirical analysis; Error analysis; Error correction & detection; Forecasting; Machine learning; Model accuracy; Neural networks; Ports; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Supply chains; Time series
• ISSN: 0263-5577; 1758-5783
• DOI: 10.1108/IMDS-07-2019-0370

Purpose Better forecasting always leads to better management and planning of the operations. The container throughput data are complex and often have multiple seasonality. This makes it difficult to forecast accurately. The purpose of this paper is to forecast container throughput using deep learning methods and benchmark its performance over other traditional time-series methods. Design/methodology/approach In this study, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are implemented to forecast container throughput. The container throughput data of the Port of Singapore are used for empirical analysis. The forecasting performance of the LSTM model is compared with seven different time-series forecasting methods, namely, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), simple exponential smoothing, Holt–Winter’s, error-trend-seasonality, trigonometric regressors (TBATS), neural network (NN) and ARIMA + NN. The relative error matrix is used to analyze the performance of the different models with respect to bias, accuracy and uncertainty. Findings The results showed that LSTM outperformed all other benchmark methods. From a statistical perspective, the Diebold–Mariano test is also conducted to further substantiate better forecasting performance of LSTM over other counterpart methods. Originality/value The proposed study is a contribution to the literature on the container throughput forecasting and adds value to the supply chain theory of forecasting. Second, this study explained the architecture of the deep-learning-based LSTM method and discussed in detail the steps to implement it.