Propaganda and Skepticism

Existing work on propaganda finds that its extremeness and effectiveness vary in sometimes puzzling ways in response to major environmental factors such as repression, diversion, and crisis. Formal models of propaganda generally examine these factors in isolation, rendering a comprehensive understan...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of political science 2021-07, Vol.65 (3), p.717-732
Main Author: Horz, Carlo M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Citizens
Crises
Endogenous
Environmental aspects
Propaganda
Psychology
Rationality
Skepticism
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Summary:Existing work on propaganda finds that its extremeness and effectiveness vary in sometimes puzzling ways in response to major environmental factors such as repression, diversion, and crisis. Formal models of propaganda generally examine these factors in isolation, rendering a comprehensive understanding difficult; moreover, they often impose rationality assumptions at odds with experimental findings. I propose a behavioral game-theoretic model of propaganda in which, consistent with psychology research, citizens are cognitively constrained and their skepticism toward propaganda is endogenous. These cognitive constraints generate a trade-off for the propagandist between motivating extreme action through extreme statements and triggering citizen skepticism. I then incorporate repression, diversion, and crisis into the model. I synthesize, and explain, empirical findings on the relationships between these factors by showing how each affects both the citizen's level of skepticism and the propagandist's calculus.
ISSN:0092-5853
1540-5907
DOI:10.1111/ajps.12592