Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming

• Published in: World development 2021-10, Vol.146, p.105582, Article 105582
• Main Authors: Flach, Rafaela, Abrahão, Gabriel, Bryant, Benjamin, Scarabello, Marluce, Soterroni, Aline C., Ramos, Fernando M., Valin, Hugo, Obersteiner, Michael, Cohn, Avery S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural ecosystems; Agricultural land; Agricultural production; Agriculture; Amazon; Analysis; Biomes; Climate change; Conservation; Conversion; Density; Economic activity; Economic aspects; Economic conditions; Economic models; Ecosystem conservation; Ecosystem services; Ecosystems; Environment models; Exposure; Extreme heat; Extreme values; Global temperature changes; Growing season; Heat; Land; Land appraisals; Prices; Property values; Regulation; Revenue; Savannahs; Soy economy; Soya beans; Tropical environment; Tropical environments; Vegetation
• ISSN: 0305-750X; 1873-5991
• DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105582

•One of the services provided by tropical ecosystems is to help regulate extreme temperatures.•We apply a novel methodology to estimate the extreme-heat regulation value provided to agriculture by ecosystems in Brazil.•Lost soy revenue due to extreme heat from native vegetation loss reached an average of $99 (2005USD) ha−1 in 2012.•With agricultural growth and increased ecosystem conversion, the value of extreme heat regulation could grow 25% to 95% by 2050.•In some locales, the value of extreme heat regulation approaches the opportunity cost of conservation; in some places, it exceeds that cost. In tropical regions, widespread loss of native forest and savanna vegetation is increasing extreme heat, particularly in agricultural regions. Using the case of rising extreme heat from lost forest and savanna vegetation in Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions, we modeled losses to soy production, the region’s principal economic activity. We assessed two types of extreme-heat regulation values: the value of avoided extreme-heat exposure of soy from the conservation of neighboring ecosystems and the value of lost revenue due to increased extreme heat exposure from increased ecosystem conversion. Our modeling combines empirical estimates of (1) the influence of ecosystem conversion on extreme heat over neighboring cropland, (2) the impacts of extreme heat on agricultural yields, and (3) native vegetation area, agricultural area, and crop prices. We examine lost soy value from land conversion over the period 1985 to 2012, potential losses from further conversion under plausible land and climate change scenarios (2020–2050), and the future value of conservation of the region’s remaining ecosystem area near soy. Soy revenue lost due to extreme heat from native vegetation loss (1985–2012) totaled 99 (2005USD) ha−1 for 2012-2013 growing season. By 2050, agricultural growth, ecosystem conversion, and climate change could boost extreme-heat regulation values by 25% to 95%. Future values were strongly sensitive to changes in agricultural density, rates of native vegetation loss, and climate. Extreme-heat regulation values were largest in the Cerrado biome and the southeastern Amazon. Relative to land values, the value of extreme heat regulation was largest relative to the carbon value of biomass in the Cerrado. By regulating the exposure of agriculture to extreme heat, ecosystem conservation can create considerable value for the soy sector.