Assessment of regional drought vulnerability and risk using principal component analysis and a Gaussian mixture model

Due to the complex characteristics of drought, drought risk needs to be quantified by combining drought vulnerability and drought hazard. Recently, the major focus in drought vulnerability has been on how to calculate the weights of indicators to comprehensively quantify drought risk. In this study,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2021-10, Vol.109 (1), p.707-724
Main Authors: Kim, Ji Eun, Yu, Jisoo, Ryu, Jae-Hee, Lee, Joo-Heon, Kim, Tae-Woong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Civil Engineering
Drought
Drought index
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental Management
Environmental risk
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrogeology
Natural Hazards
Original Paper
Principal components analysis
Probabilistic models
Regional analysis
Risk assessment
Socioeconomic factors
Vulnerability
Weather hazards
Weighting methods
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Summary:Due to the complex characteristics of drought, drought risk needs to be quantified by combining drought vulnerability and drought hazard. Recently, the major focus in drought vulnerability has been on how to calculate the weights of indicators to comprehensively quantify drought risk. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA), a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and the equal-weighting method (EWM) were applied to objectively determine the weights for drought vulnerability assessment in Chungcheong Province, located in the west-central part of South Korea. The PCA provided larger weights for agricultural and industrial factors, whereas the GMM computed larger weights for agricultural factors than did the EWM. The drought risk was assessed by combining the drought vulnerability index (DVI) and the drought hazard index (DHI). Based on the DVI, the most vulnerable region was CCN9 in the northwestern part of the province, whereas the most drought-prone region based on the DHI was CCN12 in the southwest. Considering both DVI and DHI, the regions with the highest risk were CCN12 and CCN10 in the southern part of the province. Using the proposed PCA and GMM, we validated drought vulnerability using objective weighting methods and assessed comprehensive drought risk considering both meteorological hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-021-04854-y