fenics_ice 1.0: a framework for quantifying initialization uncertainty for time-dependent ice sheet models

• Published in: Geoscientific Model Development 2021-09, Vol.14 (9), p.5843-5861
• Main Authors: Koziol, Conrad P, Todd, Joe A, Goldberg, Daniel N, Maddison, James R
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Analysis; Approximation; Covariance; Frameworks; Glaciation; Ice; Ice sheet models; Ice sheets; Inversions; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo simulation; Normal distribution; Optimization techniques; Parameter uncertainty; Parameters; Probability distribution; Sea level changes; Sea level rise; Statistical methods; Stiffness; Time dependence; Uncertainty
• ISSN: 1991-9603; 1991-959X; 1991-962X; 1991-9603; 1991-962X
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-5843-2021

Mass loss due to dynamic changes in ice sheets is a significant contributor to sea level rise, and this contribution is expected to increase in the future. Numerical codes simulating the evolution of ice sheets can potentially quantify this future contribution. However, the uncertainty inherent in these models propagates into projections of sea level rise is and hence crucial to understand. Key variables of ice sheet models, such as basal drag or ice stiffness, are typically initialized using inversion methodologies to ensure that models match present observations. Such inversions often involve tens or hundreds of thousands of parameters, with unknown uncertainties and dependencies. The computationally intensive nature of inversions along with their high number of parameters mean traditional methods such as Monte Carlo are expensive for uncertainty quantification. Here we develop a framework to estimate the posterior uncertainty of inversions and project them onto sea level change projections over the decadal timescale. The framework treats parametric uncertainty as multivariate Gaussian and exploits the equivalence between the Hessian of the model and the inverse covariance of the parameter set. The former is computed efficiently via algorithmic differentiation, and the posterior covariance is propagated in time using a time-dependent model adjoint to produce projection error bars. This work represents an important step in quantifying the internal uncertainty of projections of ice sheet models.