A Fragile Fulcrum: Indonesia-U.S. Military Relations in the Age of Great-Power Competition

Can the United States change Indonesia's strategic alignment in the ongoing great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific? More than a few analysts and policymakers in Washington and Jakarta might think so. For some, the people-to-people, economic, and security ties that have been built over seve...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Asia policy 2021-10, Vol.16 (4), p.106-114
Main Author: Laksmana, Evan A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Armed forces
Communism
Competition
Counterterrorism
Defense
Education
Exports
Foreign investment
Foreign policy
Human rights
Imports
Maritime security
Military exercises
Military relations
Military sales
Military training
Power
Presidents
ROUNDTABLE ESSAY
Security
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Summary:Can the United States change Indonesia's strategic alignment in the ongoing great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific? More than a few analysts and policymakers in Washington and Jakarta might think so. For some, the people-to-people, economic, and security ties that have been built over seven decades of engagement should be stronger than Indonesia's ties with China, which only restarted in 1990. But for others, given the scale of Indonesia's economic engagement with China in recent years, the United States might have no choice but to rely on its relationship with the Indonesian military, the Tentara Nasional Indonesia (TNI), to stay close to the island nation.1 In the areas of military education and training, joint exercises, and arms transfers, Indonesia's relationship with the United States far outstrips the one it has with China. At the moment, the security element seems stronger in the relationship than the others. For one, the Trump administration ignored the strategic partnership framework and focused instead on counterterrorism, military ties, and maritime security premised on the need to counter China.2 For another, the United States can hardly compete with China's growing economic profile in the country. Indonesia-China economic ties soared under President Joko Widodo, whose "developmentalist" outlook favored infrastructure, trade, and foreign investment. By 2019, Chinese imports totaled $44.9 billion (26.3% of total imports) and non-oil and gas exports to China were Indonesia's largest share of exports (16.7% of total exports).2 In the same year, China became Indonesia's biggest source of FDI, surpassing Japan. According to Indonesian figures, private and state-backed investment by Chinese firms increased from $600 million in 2015 to $4.74 billion in 2019-equivalent to 23.1% of total FDI inflows-and helped fund over two thousand projects across Indonesia.4
ISSN:1559-0968
1559-2960
DOI:10.1353/asp.2021.0057