Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum

Climate changes across the past 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations 1 , 2 and proxy data 3 – 8 have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we l...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) 2021-11, Vol.599 (7884), p.239-244
Main Authors: Osman, Matthew B., Tierney, Jessica E., Zhu, Jiang, Tardif, Robert, Hakim, Gregory J., King, Jonathan, Poulsen, Christopher J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/2738
704/106/413
704/106/694/1108
Atmospheric temperature
Boundary conditions
Climate change
Climate Models
Climatic changes
Cold
Data assimilation
Environmental aspects
Evolution
Geographic Mapping
Glacial climates
Global temperatures
Global warming
Global Warming - history
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Greenhouse Gases - history
History, Ancient
Holocene
Humanities and Social Sciences
Ice Cover
Ice sheets
Last Glacial Maximum
Mean temperatures
Meteorological research
multidisciplinary
Paleoclimate
Paleoclimatology
Proxies
Radiative forcing
Reproducibility of Results
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Seasons
Seawater - analysis
Simulation
Surface temperature
Temperature
Temperature changes
Temperature variability
Time series
Water Movements
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Summary:Climate changes across the past 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations 1 , 2 and proxy data 3 – 8 have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate data assimilation 9 , 10 to produce the first proxy-constrained, full-field reanalysis of surface temperature change spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to present at 200-year resolution. We demonstrate that temperature variability across the past 24 thousand years was linked to two primary climatic mechanisms: radiative forcing from ice sheets and greenhouse gases; and a superposition of changes in the ocean overturning circulation and seasonal insolation. In contrast with previous proxy-based reconstructions 6 , 7 our results show that global mean temperature has slightly but steadily warmed, by ~0.5 °C, since the early Holocene (around 9 thousand years ago). When compared with recent temperature changes 11 , our reanalysis indicates that both the rate and magnitude of modern warming are unusual relative to the changes of the past 24 thousand years. Paleoclimate datasets are integrated with a climate model to reconstruct global surface temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum, showing sustained warming until the mid-Holocene.
ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4