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Hydrogeomorphic Recovery and Temporal Changes in Rainfall Thresholds for Debris Flows Following Wildfire

Wildfire‐induced changes to soil and vegetation promote runoff‐generated debris flows in steep watersheds. Postfire debris flows are most commonly observed in steep watersheds during the first wet season following a wildfire, but it is unclear how long the elevated threat of debris flow persists and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface 2021-12, Vol.126 (12), p.n/a
Main Authors: Hoch, Olivia J., McGuire, Luke A., Youberg, Ann M., Rengers, Francis K.
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:Wildfire‐induced changes to soil and vegetation promote runoff‐generated debris flows in steep watersheds. Postfire debris flows are most commonly observed in steep watersheds during the first wet season following a wildfire, but it is unclear how long the elevated threat of debris flow persists and why debris‐flow potential changes in recovering burned areas. This work quantifies how rainfall intensity‐duration (ID) thresholds for debris‐flow initiation change with time since burning and provides a mechanistic explanation for these changes. We constrained a hydrologic model using field and remotely sensed measurements of soil‐infiltration capacity, vegetation cover, runoff, and debris‐flow activity. We applied this model to estimate rainfall ID thresholds for debris‐flow initiation within three burned areas in the southwestern United States over a postfire recovery period of three to four years. Modeling suggests ID thresholds are lowest immediately following the fire (below a one‐year recurrence interval [RI] storm) and increase with time, such that a 10‐ to 25‐year RI storm would be required to generate a debris flow after three years of recovery. Modeled changes in rainfall ID thresholds result from increases in soil infiltration capacity, canopy interception, hydraulic roughness, and median grain size of sediment entrained in an incipient debris flow. The relative importance of each of these factors varied among our three sites. Results improve our ability to assess temporal changes in postfire debris‐flow potential, highlight how site‐specific factors may alter the persistence of postfire debris‐flow hazards, and provide additional constraints on the timescale of recovery following wildfire. Plain Language Summary Wildfire increases the likelihood of runoff‐generated debris flows, which initiate on steep slopes when runoff rapidly erodes sediment, due to fire‐induced changes to vegetation cover and soil. The potential for runoff‐generated debris flows is greatest in the first year following fire, but less is known about how debris‐flow hazards persist through time as the landscape recovers. We assess how debris‐flow potential changes through time in three recovering burned areas in the southwestern United States. We estimate changes in the duration and intensity of rainfall required to initiate a debris flow over the first three to four years of recovery at each site. Furthermore, we assess how different aspects of recovery, including vegetation grow
ISSN:2169-9003
2169-9011
DOI:10.1029/2021JF006374