The older the better? The strange case of empirical ground motion models in the near-source of moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes

This paper aims at providing a quantitative evaluation of the performance of a set of empirical ground motion models (GMMs), by testing them in a magnitude and distance range ( M w  = 5.5 ÷ 7.0 and Joyner-Boore source-to-site distance R jb  ≤ 20 km) which dominates hazard in the highest seismicity a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bulletin of earthquake engineering 2022-02, Vol.20 (3), p.1325-1342
Main Authors: Paolucci, Roberto, Chiecchio, Angela, Vanini, Manuela
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Civil Engineering
Datasets
Distance
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquakes
Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology
Geological hazards
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Ground motion
Hazard assessment
Hydrogeology
Mathematical models
Numerical simulations
Original Article
Performance evaluation
Physics
Records
Seismic activity
Seismic design
Seismic hazard
Seismicity
Structural Geology
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Summary:This paper aims at providing a quantitative evaluation of the performance of a set of empirical ground motion models (GMMs), by testing them in a magnitude and distance range ( M w  = 5.5 ÷ 7.0 and Joyner-Boore source-to-site distance R jb  ≤ 20 km) which dominates hazard in the highest seismicity areas of Italy for the return periods of upmost interest for seismic design. To this end, we made use of the very recent release of the NESS2.0 dataset (Sgobba et al. NESS2.0: an updated version of the worldwide dataset for calibrating and adjusting ground motion models in near-source. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), 2021. https://doi.org/10.13127/NESS.2.0 ), that collects worldwide near-source strong motion records with detailed metadata. After selection of an ample set of GMMs, based on either their application in past seismic hazard assessment (SHA) studies or for their recent introduction, a quantification of between- and within-event residuals of predictions with respect to records was performed, with the final aim of shedding light on the performance of existing GMMs in the near-source of moderate-to-large earthquakes, also in view of their potential improvement by taking advantage of results from 3D physics-based numerical simulations.
ISSN:1570-761X
1573-1456
DOI:10.1007/s10518-021-01304-9