Macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy sectors of southern European islands

Island communities are among the first and most adversely affected by the impacts of global climate change. Islands are vulnerable to climate change because of their isolated geography, large coastal areas, and low economic diversification. This paper presents a model-based evaluation of the macroec...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2022-02, Vol.170 (3-4), Article 27
Main Authors: Vrontisi, Zoi, Charalampidis, Ioannis, Lehr, Ulrike, Meyer, Mark, Paroussos, Leonidas, Lutz, Christian, Lam-González, Yen E., Arabadzhyan, Anastasia, González, Matías M., León, Carmelo J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric Sciences
Blue economy
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate effects
Climate models
Coastal zone
Desalination
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Economic diversification
Economic impact
Economic models
Economics
Electric power demand
Electricity
Environmental impact
Geography
Global climate
Impact analysis
Islands
Macroeconomics
Marine transportation
Tourism
Water desalting
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Summary:Island communities are among the first and most adversely affected by the impacts of global climate change. Islands are vulnerable to climate change because of their isolated geography, large coastal areas, and low economic diversification. This paper presents a model-based evaluation of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy of southern European islands. We consider climate change impact chains on tourism, maritime transport, and electricity demand in a downscaled modeling framework for different climatic scenarios to the end of the century. Our findings show important economic losses in all climatic scenarios, yet economic damages under an RCP8.5 scenario more than doubled compared to a RCP2.6 pathway. Magnitudes of impacts vary across islands, depending on the level of economic diversification and geographic remoteness. The effects of climate change on the tourism sector are detrimental to the islandic economies, given the sector’s complex value chain and dominant position in value added. Similarly, increasing electricity demand for cooling and water desalination puts additional stress on the economy of the islands.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-022-03310-5