Future Changes in the Surface Water Balance over Western Canada Using the CanESM5 (CMIP6) Ensemble for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 Scenario

The Prairie provinces of Canada have about 80% of Canada’s agricultural land and contribute to more than 90% of the nation’s wheat and canola production. A future change in the surface water balance over this region could seriously affect Canada’s agro-economy. In this study, we examined 25 ensemble...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water (Basel) 2022-03, Vol.14 (5), p.691
Main Authors: Basu, Soumik, Sauchyn, David J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural land
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Alberta
Analysis
Aquatic resources
British Columbia
Canada
Canola
Climate change
Evaporation
Evapotranspiration
Farms
Growing season
Prairies
Precipitation
Precipitation (Meteorology)
Simulation
Soil moisture
Summer
Surface water
Transpiration
Trends
Water balance
Water balance (Hydrology)
Water loss
Wheat industry
Winter
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Summary:The Prairie provinces of Canada have about 80% of Canada’s agricultural land and contribute to more than 90% of the nation’s wheat and canola production. A future change in the surface water balance over this region could seriously affect Canada’s agro-economy. In this study, we examined 25 ensemble members of historical (1975 to 2005), near future (2021–2050), far future (2050–2080), and end of the century (2080–2100) simulations of the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). A comprehensive analysis of a new Net Water Balance Index (NWBI) indicates an increased growing season dryness despite increased total precipitation over the Prairie provinces. Evapotranspiration increases by 100–300 mm with a 10–20% increase in moisture loss due to transpiration. Total evaporation decreases by 15–20% as the fractional contribution of evaporation from soil decreases by 20–25%. Total evaporation from vegetation increases by 10–15%. These changes in the surface water balance suggest enhanced plant productivity when soil moisture is sufficient, but evaporative water loss that exceeds precipitation in most years.
ISSN:2073-4441
2073-4441
DOI:10.3390/w14050691