Losses and damages connected to glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

• Published in: Climatic change 2020-09, Vol.162 (2), p.837-858
• Main Authors: Motschmann, Alina, Huggel, Christian, Carey, Mark, Moulton, Holly, Walker-Crawford, Noah, Muñoz, Randy
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ablation; Atmospheric Sciences; Availability; Cascading; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate effects; Climate policy; Cryosphere; Damage detection; Dimensions; Disaster management; Disaster risk; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Economics; Emergency preparedness; Environmental policy; Glacial lake outburst floods; Glacial lakes; Glacier retreat; Glaciers; Governance; Hazard identification; Human influences; Hydrologic models; Hydrologic regime; Hydrology; Lake formation; Literature reviews; Mountains; Resource management; Risk management; River flow; Water availability; Water loss; Water resources; Water resources management; Water supply
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02770-x

The mountain cryosphere is one of the strongest affected systems by climate change. Glacier shrinkage leads to cascading impacts, including changes in river flow regimes, availability of water resources for downstream populations and economy, changes in the occurrence and severity of natural hazards, and cultural changes associated with landscape character and identity. In this study, we analyze impacts of mountain cryosphere change through a lens of Loss and Damage (L&D), a mechanism of international climate policy that tries to evaluate and reduce negative consequences of climate change for societies. We analyze the effects of climate change on glacier change, glacier lake formation and growth, hydrological regimes, and associated impacts on human societies in the Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes, now and under future scenarios. We use various methods such as literature review, glacial lake outburst flood, and hydrologic modeling to examine three major dimensions of cryospheric change and associated human impacts: (i) ice loss; (ii) glacial hazards; and (iii) variability of water availability. We identify the damage and losses in terms of the number of people affected by glacial hazards, monetized agricultural crop loss due to water loss, and non-economic values local people attribute to glacier loss. We find that different levels of warming have important negative but differentiated effects on natural and human systems. We also contend that the extent of loss and damage will largely be determined by governance and adaptation decisions such as water resource management and disaster risk management. We suggest that these lines of evidence are more explicitly taken into account in L&D policies.