Deep Learning for Global Ionospheric TEC Forecasting: Different Approaches and Validation

• Published in: Space Weather 2022-05, Vol.20 (5), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Ren, Xiaodong, Yang, Pengxin, Liu, Hang, Chen, Jun, Liu, Wanke
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accuracy; Deep learning; Evaluation; Forecast accuracy; Geomagnetic activity; Geomagnetic storm effects; Geomagnetic storms; Geomagnetism; global ionospheric maps (GIMs); Ionospheric electron content; ionospheric prediction; long short‐term memory (LSTM); Magnetic storms; Mathematical models; Orbit determination; Parameters; Root-mean-square errors; Solar activity; Solar cycle; Spherical harmonics; Total Electron Content; total electron content (TEC)
• ISSN: 1542-7390; 1539-4964; 1542-7390
• DOI: 10.1029/2021SW003011

The application of deep learning technology to ionospheric prediction has become a new research hotspot. However, there are still some gaps, such as the prediction effect with different input solar and geomagnetic activity parameters, and the forecast accuracy with different prediction methods as well as the validation of long period data results, to be filled. We developed an ionospheric long short‐term memory network (Ion‐LSTM) with multiple input parameters to predict the global ionospheric total electron content (TEC). Two solutions with different ionospheric data based on Ion‐LSTM were assessed, namely spherical harmonic coefficients (SHC) and vertical TEC (VTEC) prediction solution. The results show two solutions, both perform well in accuracy and stability. The input of the geomagnetic activity index improves the prediction effect of the model in the storm period. For the 1‐ and 2‐day‐predicted global ionospheric maps (GIMs) from 2015 to 2020, the root mean square error (RMSE) of SHC prediction solution is 1.69 TECU and 1.84 TECU while that of the VTEC prediction solution is 1.70 TECU and 1.84 TECU, respectively. Over 70% of the absolute residuals are within 3 TECU in high solar activity and over 96% in low solar activity. Further, by comparing the predicted results between Ion‐LSTM and conventional methods (e.g., Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) predicted GIMs), the evaluation results show that the RMSE of Ion‐LSTM is 0.7 TECU lower than that of CODE predicted GIMs under different solar and geomagnetic activities. Additionally, the accuracy of the Ion‐LSTM prediction results decreases slightly as the input time span increases. Plain Language Summary To fill some gaps of the ionospheric prediction research with deep learning technology, we develop an ionospheric long short‐term memory network (Ion‐LSTM) that considers the influencing factors of the solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and daily cycle indexes to predict the global ionospheric total electron content (TEC). The period of training data covered a solar cycle from 2004 to 2019, and the predicted results are evaluated during the years 2015–2020. And two different prediction solutions (spherical harmonic coefficients and vertical TEC prediction solution) based on the Ion‐LSTM model are analyzed and assessed in detail by comparison with the conventional mathematical methods. Additionally, the effect of different geomagnetic storms and the input time span on the predicted iono