Associations Between Race and Violence Risk Appraisals Using Structured Professional Judgment

• Published in: Journal of threat assessment and management 2023-06, Vol.10 (2), p.99-111
• Main Authors: Hogan, Neil R., Corabian, Gabriela
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Criminal Justice; Female; Human; Judgment; Male; Racial Disparities; Rating; Risk Assessment; Violence
• ISSN: 2169-4842; 2169-4850
• DOI: 10.1037/tam0000185

Racial disparities in criminal justice processes and outcomes have garnered considerable attention. Whether and how risk assessment instruments might contribute to such discrepancies are critical questions. However, tools based on the widely applied structured professional judgment (SPJ) model have received little attention in this regard. This study investigated relationships between race and violence risk appraisals derived from two commonly used SPJ tools, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management 20 (HCR-20V3) and the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA-V3), using a database of 337 diverse individuals' information. Results were mixed with respect to racial disparity. Race was not clearly associated with summary ratings on the HCR-20V3. However, being Indigenous predicted high-risk ratings on the SARA-V3 after controlling for risk factors and criminal history, but not after controlling for actuarial risk scores. While the results were promising in many respects, they nonetheless suggest that associations between race and SPJ risk appraisals warrant further empirical study. Public Significance Statement This study demonstrates that racial disparities may be observed among risk appraisals derived from structured professional judgment tools, based on a sample of Canadian Indigenous and non-Indigenous persons. The results were mixed and do not identify causes of the disparities, but they provide an impetus and clear directions for further study to further the aim of racial justice in risk assessment.