Herbarium records provide reliable phenology estimates in the understudied tropics

• Published in: The Journal of ecology 2023-02, Vol.111 (2), p.327-337
• Main Authors: Park, Daniel S., Lyra, Goia M., Ellison, Aaron M., Maruyama, Rogério Katsuhito Barbosa, Reis Torquato, Débora, Asprino, Renata C., Cook, Benjamin I., Davis, Charles C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aggregation; Biodiversity; Brazil; citizen science; climate; Climate change; Estimates; field survey; Flowering; herbaria; natural history collections; neotropics; Phenology; Plants; Records; Spatial variations; Tropical environments; Tropical plants
• ISSN: 0022-0477; 1365-2745
• DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.14047

Plant phenology has been shifting dramatically in response to climate change, a shift that may have significant and widespread ecological consequences. Of particular concern are tropical biomes, which represent the most biodiverse and imperilled regions of the world. However, compared to temperate floras, we know little about phenological responses of tropical plants because long‐term observational datasets from the tropics are sparse. Herbarium specimens have greatly increased our phenological knowledge in temperate regions, but similar data have been underutilized in the tropics and their suitability for this purpose has not been broadly validated. Here, we compare phenological estimates derived from field observational data (i.e. plot surveys) and herbarium specimens at various spatial and taxonomic scales to determine whether specimens can provide accurate estimations of reproductive timing and its spatial variation. Here, we demonstrate that phenological estimates from field observations and herbarium specimens coincide well. Fewer than 5% of the species exhibited significant differences between flowering periods inferred from field observations versus specimens regardless of spatial aggregation. In contrast to studies based on field records, herbarium specimens sampled much larger geographic and climatic ranges, as has been documented previously for temperate plants, and effectively captured phenological responses across varied environments. Synthesis. Herbarium specimens are verified to be a vital resource for closing the gap in our phenological knowledge of tropical systems. Tropical plant reproductive phenology inferred from herbarium records is widely congruent with field observations, suggesting that they can and should be used to investigate phenological variation and their associated environmental cues more broadly across tropical biomes. Resumo A fenologia das plantas tem mudado dramaticamente em resposta às mudanças climáticas, o que pode ter consequências ecológicas significativas e generalizadas. Os biomas tropicais são particularmente preocupantes, pois representam as regiões mais biodiversas e ameaçadas do mundo. No entanto, em comparação com as floras temperadas, sabemos pouco sobre as respostas fenológicas das plantas tropicais porque os conjuntos de dados observacionais de longo prazo nos trópicos são escassos. Espécimes de herbário têm contribuído muito para o conhecimento fenológico em regiões temperadas, mas dados desse tipo têm si