A Novel Physics‐Aware Machine Learning‐Based Dynamic Error Correction Model for Improving Streamflow Forecast Accuracy

• Published in: Water resources research 2023-02, Vol.59 (2), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Roy, Abhinanda, Kasiviswanathan, K. S., Patidar, Sandhya, Adeloye, Adebayo J., Soundharajan, Bankaru‐Swamy, Ojha, Chandra Shekhar P.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accuracy; Algorithms; Climate change; Environmental impact; Error correction; Error correction & detection; Flood forecasting; Flood warning systems; Floods; Forecast accuracy; Frameworks; HBV model; hybrid model; Lead time; Machine learning; Mathematical models; Model accuracy; Modelling; particle filter; Physics; random forest; River basins; Rivers; Stream discharge; Stream flow; streamflow forecast; Streamflow forecasting; Uncertainty; uncertainty quantification; Warning systems
• ISSN: 0043-1397; 1944-7973
• DOI: 10.1029/2022WR033318

Occurrences of extreme events, especially floods, have become more frequent and severe in the recent past due to the global impacts of climate change. In this context, possibilities for generating a near‐accurate streamflow forecast at higher lead times, which could be utilized for developing a reliable flood warning system to minimize the effects of extreme events, are highly important. This paper aims to investigate the potential of a novel hybrid modeling framework that couples the random forest algorithm, particle filter, and the HBV model for improving the overall accuracy of forecasts at higher lead times through the dynamic error correction schematic. The new framework simulates an ensemble of streamflow for estimating uncertainty associated with the predictions and is applied across two snow‐fed Himalayan rivers: the Beas River in India and the Sunkoshi River in Nepal. Several statistical indices along with graphical performance indicators were used for assessing the accuracy of the model performance and associated uncertainty. The modeling framework achieved the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.94 and 0.98 in calibration and 0.95 and 0.99 in validation for the Beas and Sunkoshi river basin respectively for a 7‐day ahead forecast. Thus, the proposed framework can be considered as a promising tool having reasonably good performance in forecasting streamflow at a higher lead time. Key Points Hybrid hydrological model integrates process‐based model with machine learning algorithm through data assimilation technique Dynamic error correction framework capable of improving the streamflow forecast at longer lead time is proposed Overall the developed framework improves the forecast accuracy along with quantifying the model prediction uncertainty