Potential Climate Impacts of Afforestation and Waterlogging in Belarus

• Published in: Izvestiya. Atmospheric and oceanic physics 2023-04, Vol.59 (2), p.131-143
• Main Authors: Lysenko, S. A., Zaiko, P. A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Afforestation; Afforestation effects; Agricultural land; Air temperature; Albedo; Atmospheric models; Atmospheric precipitations; Atmospheric processes; Climate change; Climatic conditions; Climatological normals; Climatology; Daytime; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Evaporation; Evapotranspiration; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geosensing; Growing season; Land reclamation; Land surface temperature; Moisture effects; Night; Peatlands; Physical characteristics; Physical properties; Precipitation; Reclamation; Remote sensing; Soil conditions; Soil moisture; Spatial distribution; Surface temperature; Surface-air temperature relationships; Transpiration; Waterlogged ground; Waterlogging
• ISSN: 0001-4338; 1555-628X
• DOI: 10.1134/S0001433823020044

This article discusses the expected climate changes in Belarus as a result of two types of land transformation—rewetting degraded peatlands and increasing forest cover. The analysis was performed for the growing season (May–September) based on long-term earth remote sensing data, mesoscale modeling of atmospheric processes, and balance calculations using ERA5 reanalysis. It is shown that, as a result of waterlogging, the daytime temperature of the land surface for the southern part of Belarus (below the latitude of Minsk) decreases within 1.5°С due to increased evaporation and, for the northern part, 0.5 increased due to albedo regularity. At night, waterlogging, depending on the soil and climatic conditions, can cause both an increase and decrease a specific value of the land surface temperature (LST) within 1°C. Evapotranspiration due to waterlogging in the northern regions of Belarus decreases and it increases in the southern regions, which is associated with a significant ratio between evaporation and transpiration in these regions. During the afforestation of cropland, the daytime LST of Belarus decreases within 2°C and, at night, increase. The total evapotranspiration for the growing season due to the increase in forest cover reaches 100 mm, and potential (maximum possible) evaporation remains at the same level, which contributes to an increase in soil moisture at an increased amount of atmospheric precipitation. The above changes in the physical characteristics of the land surface as a result of reclamation cause a decrease in the surface air temperature in the reclamated region within 0.4°C and an increase in the amount of atmospheric precipitation within 2% of the climatic normals. At the same time, the maximum in the spatial distribution of secondary precipitation due to western transport shifts to the east relative to the reclaimed region.