Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates

• Published in: Conservation biology 2023-06, Vol.37 (3), p.e14035-n/a
• Main Authors: Dragonetti, Chiara, Mendez Angarita, Valeria Y., Di Marco, Moreno
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: adaptación; adaptation; Animals; biodiversidad; Biodiversity; cambio climático; cambio global; Carnivores; Climate Change; Climate change mitigation; Climate policy; conservación; conservation; Conservation of Natural Resources; Emission analysis; emission scenarios; Emissions; Environmental changes; Environmental conditions; Environmental impact; escenarios de emisiones; Forecasting; global change; Global warming; human pressure; Land conservation; Land use; Mammals; Mitigation; Mountains; Niches; Paris Agreement; Policies; presión humana; Probability theory; Shrinkage; Survival; Threatened species; Ungulates; Vulnerable species; Wildlife conservation; 人为压力; 保护; 全球变化; 排放情景; 气候变化; 生物多样性
• ISSN: 0888-8892; 1523-1739
• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14035

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high‐emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty‐three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species‐specific conservation intervention and sustainable land‐use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species. Resumen Las montañas se encuentran entre los sistemas naturales más afectados por el cambio climático y se considera a los mamíferos montanos en un peligro particular debido a su alto nivel de especialización en condiciones ambientales dentro de un rango muy reducido de tolerancia. Las políticas de mitigación del cambio climático, como el Acuerdo de París, son esenciales para frenar el impacto del cambio climático sobre los sistemas naturales. ¿Pero cuán significativo es el Acuerdo de París para la supervivencia de los mamíferos montanos? Analizamos cómo los escenarios alternativos de emisiones pueden determinar el cambio en el nicho climático efectivo de los carnívoros y ungulados montanos en el 2050. Basamos nuestras predicciones del cambio en los nichos de las especies con base en cómo éstas han respondido a cambios ambientales anteriores, con un énfasis en la