Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA

The northeastern USA has experienced a dramatic increase in total and extreme precipitation over the past 30 years, yet how precipitation will evolve across the Northeast by the end of the twenty-first century remains uncertain. To examine the future of precipitation across the Northeast, we use the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2023-06, Vol.176 (6), p.72, Article 72
Main Authors: Picard, Christopher J., Winter, Jonathan M., Cockburn, Charlotte, Hanrahan, Janel, Teale, Natalie G., Clemins, Patrick J., Beckage, Brian
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Archives & records
Atmospheric research
Atmospheric Sciences
Bias
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Extreme weather
Precipitable water
Precipitation
Regional climate models
Regional climates
Weather forecasting
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Summary:The northeastern USA has experienced a dramatic increase in total and extreme precipitation over the past 30 years, yet how precipitation will evolve across the Northeast by the end of the twenty-first century remains uncertain. To examine the future of precipitation across the Northeast, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model driven by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate precipitation for historical (1976–2005) and future (2070–2099) periods. We compare precipitation from CESM-WRF hindcasts to gridded observations (Daymet), finding a 4.6% dry bias and 7.7% wet bias for total and extreme precipitation, respectively. CESM-WRF projections have increases in both total (9.7%) and extreme (51.6%) precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century, with winter having the largest increases in total precipitation (16.4%) and extreme precipitation (109.3%). These results are consistent with additional WRF simulations forced with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model and the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment archive. To investigate the drivers of precipitation change, we analyze several atmospheric variables and find that the projected increases in extreme precipitation are strongly related to increasing precipitable water over the eastern USA and the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding projected increases in total and extreme precipitation is critical for stakeholders to prepare for the impacts of intensified precipitation.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-023-03545-w