Integrating Deterministic and Fuzzy Concepts into the Benefit–Cost Analysis of Wyoming’s Proposed Pavement Testing Track Facility

• Published in: International journal of pavement research & technology 2023-09, Vol.16 (5), p.1267-1284
• Main Authors: Fosu-Saah, Benjamin, Hafez, Marwan, Ksaibati, Khaled
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accelerated tests; Building Construction and Design; Civil Engineering; Cost analysis; Cost benefit analysis; Economic analysis; Engineering; Feasibility studies; Full scale tests; Fuzzy logic; Life cycle analysis; Life cycle costs; Original Research Paper; Partnerships; Pavement materials; Pavements; Probabilistic methods; Probability theory; Sensitivity analysis; Soft computing; Structural Materials; Uncertainty
• ISSN: 1996-6814; 1997-1400
• DOI: 10.1007/s42947-022-00195-6

An accelerated pavement testing (APT) facility is proposed for the dry–freeze climatic region of the United States to test pavement materials under a full-scale test road parallel to an existing corridor of Interstate (I-80) in Wyoming. Economic assessment of APT program is necessary to address funding issues, increase accountability, and encourage partnership. However, the effect of uncertainty associated with the economic evaluation of APT programs is a shortcoming in making investment decisions because it can generate subjective decision-making. Several authors acknowledged the difficulty in assessing the benefits of their APT programs due to the uncertainty and subjectivity. However, these authors used deterministic and probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) and sensitivity analysis to address the uncertainty. Although the probabilistic methods have proven effective to overcome this problem, the significant amount of data needed is a drawback and affects its usage. The authors have used these approaches to determine the benefits of APT programs after years of operation and none at the planning stage. When it comes to assessing the economic feasibility at the planning stage, input variables are more of vagueness and subjectivity rather than randomness. This study integrates both deterministic and fuzzy approaches with sensitivity analysis to provide a comprehensive framework to determine the economic benefits of APT facilities at the feasibility study using the proposed test track in Wyoming as a case study. The expected benefit–cost (B/C) ratio of participating states and the overall B/C ratio of the proposed facility is presented. The results reveal that the proposed APT program is economically advantageous, and the fuzzy logic LCCA is a promising alternative approach to perform B/C ratio as an input for planning future APT programs. Partnerships are encouraged to make the APT program more cost-effective and sustainable. Future economic assessment of APT investments with soft computing techniques is recommended.