Regional features of future warming using high‐resolution downscaled multimodel climate scenarios in mainland China

• Published in: International journal of climatology 2023-09, Vol.43 (11), p.5286-5300
• Main Authors: Zhang, Lei, Xu, Yinlong, Zhao, Yuncheng, Meng, Chunchun, Wang, Changgui, Lin, Yihua
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air temperature; Climate change; Climate models; Climatic zones; Daily temperatures; Frost; Global warming; Heat waves; Mitigation; Surface temperature; Surface-air temperature relationships; Temperature
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.8146

The frequency and magnitude of global warming events varies greatly across different regions and countries. The climatic diversity for China and future warming features are projected across 12 climatic zones based on the ensemble of the five well‐performing high‐resolution downscaled climate models for each zone. There are warming patterns for the mean near‐surface air temperature (Tm), maximum near‐surface air temperature (Tmax), minimum near‐surface air temperature (Tmin) as well as heatwave and frost events. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the three indices (i.e., Tm, Tmax and Tmin) countrywide are likely to increase at respective rates of 0.30–0.31 and 0.64–0.67°C·decade −1 . The extent of frost event (FE) are projected to decrease at a rate of −1912 and −4442 day·km −2 ·decade −1 while the extent of heatwave event (HE) increase at a rate of 1116 and 3557 day·km −2 ·decade −1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. A higher increment in temperatures, a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range (DTR), frost days and FE are highlighted in the western and northern zones, while these trends are opposite in southern zones. The warming is likely to get faster in the current colder zones (western and northern zones) while heatwave is more intense and severe in Jianghuai, Jianghan, the south Yangzi River, South China and Xinjiang. These potential changes indicate that adaption and mitigation strategies are necessary in response to future warming.