Global lead-lag changes between climate variability series coincide with major phase shifts in the Pacific decadal oscillation

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology 2023-11, Vol.154 (3-4), p.1137-1149
• Main Authors: Seip, Knut L., Grøn, Ø., Wang, H.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide concentration; Climate; Climate cycles; Climate science; Climate variability; Climatology; Decades; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Global temperatures; Heat; Hypotheses; Oceans; Original Paper; Oscillations; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; Temperature; Temperature anomalies; Time series; Variability; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-023-04617-8

We show that there are distinct periods when three ocean variability series in the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans persistently lead or lag each other, as well as distinct periods when ocean variability series lead the rate of changes in global temperature anomaly (∆GTA) and in atmospheric CO 2 concentration (1880–2019). The superimposed lead-lag (LL) relations that can be formed from the five climate series (three ocean series, GTA and CO 2 ), ΣLL(10), change directions or weaken synchronously at 6 years: 1900, 1926, 1965, 1977, 1997, and 2013. During the same years, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) changes between positive ( +) and negative (-) phases, but with an additional phase shift in 1947/48. We find bi-decadal oscillations in the rate of change in global temperature, ∆GTA, during the same years. Since the hiatus periods are closely related to the cold phase (-) in PDO, the hiatus periods may also be related to global changes in ocean interactions.