Modelling temperature and precipitation variabilities over semi-arid region of Pakistan under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios

• Published in: Modeling earth systems and environment 2024-02, Vol.10 (1), p.143-155
• Main Authors: Bint-e-Mehmood, Danish, Awan, Jehangir Ashraf, Farah, Humera
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agriculture; Arid regions; Arid zones; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Climate change; Climate models; Computer Science; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth System Sciences; Ecosystems; Emission analysis; Emissions; Environment; Food security; Hydrologic data; Local communities; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences; Nutritional requirements; Original Article; Physics; Precipitation; Rainfall; Regions; Semi arid areas; Semiarid lands; Statistics for Engineering; Temperature; Trends
• ISSN: 2363-6203; 2363-6211
• DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01776-5

The agriculture sector in semi-arid regions of the world is highly vulnerable to climate change. People in Potohar Plateau, a rainfed semi-arid region in Pakistan, largely depends on locally grown crops for their staple food requirements. Abrupt changes in climate patterns lead to crop failures and adversely impact the livelihood of local communities. Future climate change is expected to further amplify food and livelihood insecurities. This study analyzes the past (1981–2010) temperature and precipitation data and project future (2021–2100) changes in temperature and precipitation using CMIP5 models under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. The study area was splited into two sub-regions: The eastern Potohar region (Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Jhelum) and the western Potohar region (Attock and Chakwal). Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were applied to check the significance and rate of trends in temperature and precipitation. Signficant rising temperature trends were simulated for the both sub-regions. Models under RCP 4.5 emission scenario projected average increase of 3.2 °C and 2.8 °C in eastern and western Potohar regions, respectively. Under business as usual RCP 8.5 emission scenario models projected increase of 3.9 °C and 4.0 °C in eastern and western Potohar region, respectively. On contrary, models projected large variations in precipitation with no distinct trends in both eastern and western Potohar regions. Rising temperatures and high rainfall variability is an alarming sign for agriculture sector and food security of the region.