Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence and Exploring Just Energy Transition Pathways in Indonesia Using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is not adequately reflected in the significant CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-intensive energy sectors, despite the enormous potential of renewable energy sources in the country. The ongoing coal regime ha...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate (Basel) 2024-03, Vol.12 (3), p.37
Main Authors: Hersaputri, Laksmita Dwi, Yeganyan, Rudolf, Cannone, Carla, Plazas-Niño, Fernando, Osei-Owusu, Simone, Kountouris, Yiannis, Howells, Mark
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air pollution
Alternative energy sources
Capital expenditures
Carbon
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide emissions
Coal
Coal mining
Coal-fired power plants
Electricity distribution
Electricity generation
Emission analysis
Emissions
Emissions control
Energy
Energy industry
Energy minerals
Energy policy
Energy resources
Energy transition
Environmental aspects
Forecasts and trends
Fossil fuels
Geothermal energy
Geothermal power
Hydroelectric power
Industrial plant emissions
Job rotation
Modelling
Outdoor air quality
Paris Agreement
Regulatory reform
Renewable energy
Renewable energy sources
Renewable resources
Solar energy
Solar power
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Summary:Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is not adequately reflected in the significant CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-intensive energy sectors, despite the enormous potential of renewable energy sources in the country. The ongoing coal regime has led to electricity oversupply and air pollution problems. Despite the huge challenges for Indonesia, a just energy transition away from fossil fuel is crucial. This study aims to explore the ideal energy mix and key emission reduction pathway in Indonesia in achieving a just energy transition using the least-cost optimisation energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Six scenarios are modelled over the period 2015–2050 including coal phase-out, NDC, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), and carbon tax implementation. The results highlight that solar power, geothermal power, and hydropower are the alternatives for coal decommissioning. Despite the large-scale investment in renewable energy under the NDC and JETP scenarios, emissions could be reduced by 55% and 52%, respectively, by 2050. Moreover, Indonesia’s current carbon tax rate will not lead to a significant emission reduction. Three recommended policies include (1) accelerating CFPP retirement; (2) imposing an aggressive carbon tax rate; (3) prioritising investment in solar technologies.
ISSN:2225-1154
2225-1154
DOI:10.3390/cli12030037