A novel time series forecasting model for capacity degradation path prediction of lithium-ion battery pack

Monitoring battery health is critical for electric vehicle maintenance and safety. However, existing research has limited focus on predicting capacity degradation paths for entire battery packs, representing a gap between literature and application. This paper proposes a multi-horizon time series fo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of supercomputing 2024-05, Vol.80 (8), p.10959-10984
Main Authors: Chen, Xiang, Yang, Yingjie, Sun, Jie, Deng, Yelin, Yuan, Yinnan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Compilers
Computer Science
Condition monitoring
Datasets
Degradation
Electric vehicles
Forecasting
Interpreters
Lithium-ion batteries
Mathematical models
Model accuracy
Modules
Path predictors
Processor Architectures
Programming Languages
Rechargeable batteries
Time series
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Summary:Monitoring battery health is critical for electric vehicle maintenance and safety. However, existing research has limited focus on predicting capacity degradation paths for entire battery packs, representing a gap between literature and application. This paper proposes a multi-horizon time series forecasting model (MMRNet, which consists of MOSUM, flash-MUSE attention, and RNN core modules) to predict the capacity degradation paths of battery packs. First, domain knowledge (DK) extracts the features from extensive battery aging datasets. The moving sum (MOSUM) and improved flash multi-scale attention (MUSE) methods are proposed to capture capacity curve mutations and multi-scale trends. Dynamic dropout training, transposition linear architecture, residual connections, and module stacking improve model generalization and accuracy. Experiments on battery pack and cell datasets demonstrate the superior performance of MMRNet over six baseline time series models. The proposed data-driven approach effectively predicts battery degradation trajectories, with implications for condition monitoring and the safety of electric vehicles.
ISSN:0920-8542
1573-0484
DOI:10.1007/s11227-023-05859-z