Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity modulated by phytoplankton feedback under global warming

The effects of bio-optical feedback through chlorophyll on future tropical cyclone (TC) activity are not well understood. Here we use Earth system model simulations with the biogeochemical feedback turned on and off to investigate the influence of chlorophyll changes on projections of TCs over the w...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature climate change 2024-05, Vol.14 (5), p.504-510
Main Authors: Kim, Han-Kyoung, Park, Jong-Yeon, Park, Doo-Sun R., Kug, Jong-Seong, Yeh, Sang-Wook, Son, Jun-Hyeok
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/47
704/106/694/2786
Atmospheric models
Chlorophyll
Chlorophylls
Climate Change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Cyclones
Cyclonic activity
Earth and Environmental Science
El Nino phenomena
Environment
Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice
Feedback
Global warming
Hurricanes
La Nina
Marine organisms
Optical feedback
Phytoplankton
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Surface temperature
Tropical cyclone activity
Tropical cyclones
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Summary:The effects of bio-optical feedback through chlorophyll on future tropical cyclone (TC) activity are not well understood. Here we use Earth system model simulations with the biogeochemical feedback turned on and off to investigate the influence of chlorophyll changes on projections of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP). An increase in chlorophyll in the tropical eastern Pacific and a decrease in the tropical western Pacific lead to a La Niña-like sea surface temperature warming. This pattern plays a crucial role in enhancing the genesis potential index over the southeastern WNP by 10.16% through strengthening of the Walker and local Hadley circulations. The enhanced genesis potential index is further supported by an additional higher-resolution atmospheric model experiment that shows a 71% increase in TC genesis over the southeastern WNP (from 2.00 to 3.43 yr −1 ) and a 27.02% enhancement in TC landfall frequency in East Asia (from 4.33 to 5.50 yr − 1 ). The degree to which changes in marine organisms due to warming can influence tropical cyclones is not well known. Here the authors show that changing chlorophyll patterns can lead to more landfalling tropical cyclones in East Asia.
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/s41558-024-01976-6