Correlation of wind and precipitation annual aggregate severity of European cyclones

• Published in: Weather 2024-06, Vol.79 (6), p.176-181
• Main Authors: Jones, Toby P., Stephenson, David B., Priestley, Matthew D. K.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aggregates; Annual precipitation; Correlation; Cyclones; Damage accumulation; Extratropical cyclones; Gusts; Precipitation; Storms; Thresholds; Wind; Wind damage
• ISSN: 0043-1656; 1477-8696
• DOI: 10.1002/wea.4573

This study has investigated the correlation between wind gust and precipitation annual aggregate severity arising from extratropical cyclones over the Europe‐Atlantic region. Annual aggregate severity indices have been constructed by summing exceedances above chosen damage thresholds of wind gust and precipitation accumulation for all storms. A strong positive correlation between wind and precipitation aggregate severity exists at low thresholds. At higher thresholds where severity indices are a better reflection of wind and flood losses, negative correlations occur over Western Europe. These aggregates should therefore not be assumed to be either independent or positively correlated. This study has investigated the correlation between wind gust and precipitation annual aggregate severity arising from extra‐tropical cyclones over the Europe‐Atlantic region. Annual aggregate severity indices have been constructed by summing exceedances above chosen damage thresholds of wind gust and precipitation accumulation for all storms. A strong positive correlation between wind and precipitation aggregate severity exists at low thresholds. At higher thresholds where severity indices are a better reflection of wind and flood losses, negative correlations occur over western Europe. These aggregates should therefore not be assumed to be either independent or positively correlated.