Aviation accidents related to atmospheric instability in the United States (2000–2020)

Over 8000 weather-related aviation accidents in the USA from 2000 to 2020 are investigated, in order to find possible connections between atmospheric instability and severe aviation accidents – defined here as events that recorded serious or fatal injuries. We use the bootstrapped median values for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Theoretical and applied climatology 2024-06, Vol.155 (6), p.5483-5497
Main Authors: Nita, Ion-Andrei, Radu, Crina, Cheval, Sorin, Birsan, Marius-Victor
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accident prediction
Accidents
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Aviation
Aviation meteorology
Climate prediction
Climatology
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Extreme weather
Meteorological conditions
Meteorological parameters
Parameters
Pilots
Regional climates
Regression models
Relative humidity
Visibility
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Weather
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Summary:Over 8000 weather-related aviation accidents in the USA from 2000 to 2020 are investigated, in order to find possible connections between atmospheric instability and severe aviation accidents – defined here as events that recorded serious or fatal injuries. We use the bootstrapped median values for multiple meteorological parameters extracted from North America Regional climate reanalysis for each accident cause. To check the possibility of predicting severe accidents, we applied a logistic regression model containing several meteorological variables as predictands. Results show that approximately 67% of the weather-related severe aviation accidents can be explained by meteorological parameters like relative humidity, temperature, visibility or total cloud fraction. The monthly frequency of weather-related accidents shows a 6-months peak, corresponding to the peak of the convective season in North America. Older pilots (> 60 years) are more likely to be involved in a severe accident during adverse weather, while flight experience seems less relevant. Our study aims to better understand which meteorological variables are more significant in the outcome of severe aviation accidents during adverse meteorological conditions, and to investigate the roles of age and experience in pilots' response during extreme weather.
ISSN:0177-798X
1434-4483
DOI:10.1007/s00704-024-04968-w