A Deconfounding Approach to Climate Model Bias Correction

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, GCM outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate representation of complex climate phenomena. Traditional bias co...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2024-08
Main Authors: Gao, Wentao, Li, Jiuyong, Debo Cheng, Liu, Lin, Liu, Jixue, Le, Thuc Duy, Du, Xiaojing, Chen, Xiongren, Zhao, Yanchang, Chen, Yun
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bias
Global climate models
Parameterization
Statistical methods
Time series
Weather forecasting
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, GCM outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate representation of complex climate phenomena. Traditional bias correction methods, which rely on historical observation data and statistical techniques, often neglect unobserved confounders, leading to biased results. This paper proposes a novel bias correction approach to utilize both GCM and observational data to learn a factor model that captures multi-cause latent confounders. Inspired by recent advances in causality based time series deconfounding, our method first constructs a factor model to learn latent confounders from historical data and then applies them to enhance the bias correction process using advanced time series forecasting models. The experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs. By addressing unobserved confounders, our approach offers a robust and theoretically grounded solution for climate model bias correction.
ISSN:2331-8422