The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay

• Published in: Demographic research 2024-07, Vol.51, p.COV10-322
• Main Authors: Ferre, Zuleika, Triunfo, Patricia, Anton, Jose Ignacio
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Academic achievement; Adolescents; Age; Age differences; Analysis; Births; Data analysis; Demographic transition; Demographic transition theory; Demography; Diffusion rate; Economic conditions; Economic development; Economic performance; Education; Employment; Female roles; Fertility; Fertility, Human; Heterogeneity; Income; Incompatibility; Infant mortality; Infants; Information dissemination; Life cycle, Human; Long term; Policy making; Statistical analysis; Time series; Women
• ISSN: 1435-9871; 1435-9871; 2363-7064
• DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2024.51.10

Uruguay was one of the pioneers of the demographic transition in Latin America and the Caribbean. It experienced very early declines in both fertility and mortality, but teenage fertility remained high until recently. We study the short- and long-term determinants of fertility at different reproductive age stages (less than 20 years old, 20 to 29 years old, and 30 years old and over). We employ time-series analysis methods based on data from 1968 to 2021 and panel-data techniques based on department-level statistical information from 1984 to 2019. Our time-series analysis indicates a cointegration (long-term) relationship between fertility and economic performance, education, and infant mortality, with differences observed by reproductive age stage. It finds a negative relationship between income and fertility for women aged 20 to 29 that persists for women aged 30 and over and a negative relationship between education and adolescent fertility. A panel-data exercise with econometric techniques allowing us to control for unobserved heterogeneity confirms that income is a relevant factor for all groups of women and reinforces the crucial role of education in reducing teenage fertility. We also identify a negative correlation between fertility and employment rates for women aged 30 years old and over. Our study suggests a very relevant role for education in curbing fertility, especially among teenagers. It also confirms the importance of the level of economic development, providing support for conventional structural or diffusion, maternal role incompatibility, and institutional theories. Our evidence on female employment is not robust to the estimation method.