Urban Spatial Pattern Optimization Based on “Double Evaluation”: A Case Study of Urban Agglomeration in Central Yunnan, China

• Published in: Sustainability 2024-01, Vol.16 (24), p.11031
• Main Authors: Chen, Guoping, Long, Xiaohui, Wu, Chuntong, Zhao, Junsan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agglomeration; Carbon sequestration; Cities; Climate change; Economic development; Land use; Machine learning; Optimization; Regional differences; River networks; System theory; Trends; Urban development; Urbanization; Water resources
• ISSN: 2071-1050
• DOI: 10.3390/su162411031

The evaluation of the carrying capacity of urban resources and the environment and the suitability of urban spatial development (referred to as “double evaluation”) is a fundamental prerequisite for territorial spatial planning. A scientifically planned urban spatial layout is key to balancing economic, social, and environmental benefits, which directly impacts urbanization levels and regional high-quality development. In this study, a double evaluation index system was established for the city cluster in central Yunnan based on the theories of “double evaluation” and main functional zones. The PLUS model was used to predict the distribution of future urban spatial patterns, considering factors like main function zones, and to optimize the spatial patterns of cities and towns in the study area. The findings are as follows. (1) The area of land suitable for urban construction in the study area is 25,107.51 km2, mainly distributed in the southern and central urban areas, as well as in the Zhanyi and Qilin districts to the east. (2) More than 76% of the land designated for urban construction is located in suitable areas, with an area of 680.51 km2, which represents only 2.71% of the total suitable land, indicating significant potential for further urban development. The PLUS simulation reveals that the urban area in the study area will reach 235.41 km2 by the future, with 83.67% of urban construction space concentrated in suitable areas. Additionally, 69.11% of urban construction space and 74.53% of suitable land for urban construction are located in the key development area, which covers 618.43 km2 and 18,713.28 km2, respectively. This highlights the key development area’s crucial role in urban expansion and its significant potential for further development. Despite the region’s high level of economic activity and urbanization, there remains considerable potential for the expansion of towns over a wide area. This study provides valuable insights for optimizing urban spatial layouts, the allocation of national land space functions, and promoting orderly development.