Propensity Score Estimation With Boosted Regression for Evaluating Causal Effects in Observational Studies

Causal effect modeling with naturalistic rather than experimental data is challenging. In observational studies participants in different treatment conditions may also differ on pretreatment characteristics that influence outcomes. Propensity score methods can theoretically eliminate these confounds...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Psychological methods 2004-12, Vol.9 (4), p.403-425
Main Authors: McCaffrey, Daniel F, Ridgeway, Greg, Morral, Andrew R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescents
Biological and medical sciences
Causal Analysis
Causal Models
Drug Abuse
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation Research
Evaluation Studies as Topic
Female
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Human
Humans
Male
Models, Psychological
Observation
Outcome Assessment (Health Care) - statistics & numerical data
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Psychometrics - statistics & numerical data
Psychometrics. Statistics. Methodology
Regression (Statistics)
Scores
Statistical Analysis
Statistical Estimation
Statistical Inference
Statistical Measurement
Statistics. Mathematics
Substance Abuse
Substance Use Treatment
Substance-Related Disorders - therapy
Treatment Outcomes
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Summary:Causal effect modeling with naturalistic rather than experimental data is challenging. In observational studies participants in different treatment conditions may also differ on pretreatment characteristics that influence outcomes. Propensity score methods can theoretically eliminate these confounds for all observed covariates, but accurate estimation of propensity scores is impeded by large numbers of covariates, uncertain functional forms for their associations with treatment selection, and other problems. This article demonstrates that boosting, a modern statistical technique, can overcome many of these obstacles. The authors illustrate this approach with a study of adolescent probationers in substance abuse treatment programs. Propensity score weights estimated using boosting eliminate most pretreatment group differences and substantially alter the apparent relative effects of adolescent substance abuse treatment.
ISSN:1082-989X
1939-1463
DOI:10.1037/1082-989X.9.4.403