Effects of Baseline Conditions on the Simulated Hydrologic Response to Projected Climate Change

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitati...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth interactions 2011-10, Vol.15 (27), p.1-23
Main Authors: Koczot, Kathryn M, Markstrom, Steven L, Hay, Lauren E
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
20th century
Archives & records
Atmospheric models
Basins
Catchment area
Climate change
Climate effects
Documentation
Evaluation
Evapotranspiration
General circulation models
Hydrologic data
Hydrology
Moisture content
Moisture effects
Precipitation
Precipitation data
Precipitation-temperature relationships
Rainfall-runoff relationships
River basins
Runoff
Simulation
Snowpack
Soil moisture
Stream discharge
Stream flow
Temperature
Water content
Watershed hydrology
Watersheds
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Summary:Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.
ISSN:1087-3562
1087-3562
DOI:10.1175/2011EI378.1