Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation on Armed Conflict, 1945-2001

The possession of nuclear weapons confers many benefits on a state. The path to proliferation, however, is often violent. When a state initiates a nuclear weapons program, it signals its intent to fundamentally alter its bargaining environment. States that once had an advantage will now be disadvant...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International studies quarterly 2012-03, Vol.56 (1), p.149-162
Main Authors: Sobek, David, Foster, Dennis M., Robison, Samuel B.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Armed conflict
Arms control & disarmament
Bargaining
Causal analysis
Complaints
Conflict
conflicts
Democracy
Disadvantaged
Dyadic relations
Expectations
Grievances
Incentives
International comparisons
International conflict
International conflicts
International studies
Negotiation
Nuclear deterrence
Nuclear power
Nuclear Proliferation
Nuclear tests
Nuclear Weapons
Probability
Review articles
Risk
Target acquisitions
Territorial disputes
Territorial issues
War
Weapons
Wisdom
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Summary:The possession of nuclear weapons confers many benefits on a state. The path to proliferation, however, is often violent. When a state initiates a nuclear weapons program, it signals its intent to fundamentally alter its bargaining environment. States that once had an advantage will now be disadvantaged. This change in the environment is not instantaneous, but evolves slowly over time. This gives states both opportunities and incentives to resolve underlying grievances, by force if necessary, before a nuclear weapons program is completed. Our cross-national analyses of nuclear weapons program and the onset of militarized conflict confirm this expectation. In particular, the closer a state gets to acquiring nuclear weapons, the greater the risk it will be attacked (especially over territorial issues). Once nuclear weapons are acquired, however, the risk of being attacked dramatically drops, though not below the risk of attack for non-proliferators.
ISSN:0020-8833
1468-2478
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00707.x