Why China's Tax Revenue Is Likely to Maintain Its Rapid Growth: An Explanation within the Framework of Tax Capacity and Tax Effort

• Published in: Social sciences in China 2012-02, Vol.33 (1), p.108-126
• Main Authors: Bingyang, Lü, Qingwang, Guo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: China; Decentralization; Fiscal theory; Incentives; Peoples Republic of China; Reform; Revenue; Stock returns; tax capacity; tax decentralization; tax effort; tax growth; Tax revenue; Taxation; Taxpayers
• ISSN: 0252-9203; 1940-5952
• DOI: 10.1080/02529203.2012.650413

在税收能力和税收努力的理论框架下, 分析中国税收高速增长的源泉, 可以发 现, 在分税制改革后, 中国税收长时间高速增长的原因主要表现在三个方面: 分税制 的税收分权契约性质具有强烈的税收激励作用; 间接税的制度设计放大了纳税人的纳 税能力; 我国正处于"税收增长红利"集中释放期。未来第一种因素的作用将减弱, 第二种因素的作用部分消失, 第三种因素的作用依旧存在。从长期看, 由于税收增长 红利仍将持续很长一段时期, 税收仍可能保持较高速度的增长。关键词: 税收增长 税收分权 税收能力 税收努力 An analysis of the dynamics of the rapid growth of tax revenue in China within the framework of tax capacity and tax effort reveals three major drivers following the tax sharing reform. First, the nature of the decentralization contract under the tax sharing system provides strong incentives for taxation. Second, the system of indirect taxes boosts taxpayers' taxable capacity. And third, China is enjoying the intensively present tax growth dividend. In the future, the first factor will diminish; the second factor will partially cease functioning; and the third factor will remain constant. Over the long term, the tax growth dividend will be long lasting and tax revenue will keep growing at a high speed.