Does anti-hepatitis B virus vaccine make any difference in long-term number of liver transplantation?

Background Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B infection is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Our aim is to analyze, through a mathematical model, the potentia...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Clinical transplantation 2012-11, Vol.26 (6), p.E590-E595
Main Authors: Chaib, E., Coimbra, B. G. M. M., Galvão, F. H. F., Tatebe, E. R., Shinzato, M. S., D'Albuquerque, L. A. C, Massad, E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - epidemiology
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - prevention & control
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular - virology
Child
Child, Preschool
Chronic infection
Cirrhosis
Hepatitis B
Hepatitis B - complications
Hepatitis B - epidemiology
Hepatitis B - prevention & control
Hepatitis B Vaccines - administration & dosage
Hepatitis B virus
Hepatitis B virus - pathogenicity
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Liver Cirrhosis - epidemiology
Liver Cirrhosis - prevention & control
Liver Cirrhosis - virology
Liver diseases
Liver Failure - surgery
Liver Neoplasms - epidemiology
Liver Neoplasms - prevention & control
Liver Neoplasms - virology
Liver transplantation
Liver Transplantation - statistics & numerical data
mathematical model
Mathematical models
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
Morbidity
Mortality
Prevalence
Vaccination
Vaccines
Young Adult
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Summary:Background Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B infection is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Our aim is to analyze, through a mathematical model, the potential impact of anti‐HBV vaccine in the long‐term (that is, decades after vaccination) number of LT. Methods The model simulated that the prevalence of HBV infection was 0.5% and that approximately 20% of all the liver transplantation carried out in the state of São Paulo are due to HBV infection. Results The theoretical model suggests that a vaccination program that would cover 80% of the target population would reach a maximum of about 14% reduction in the LT program. Conclusion Increasing the vaccination coverage against HBV in the state of São Paulo would have a relatively low impact on the number of liver transplantation. In addition, this impact would take several decades to materialize due to the long incubation period of liver failure due to HBV.
ISSN:0902-0063
1399-0012
DOI:10.1111/ctr.12030