Chaotic Models as Representations of Ecological Systems

Interest has been shown in the dynamics of simple models whose predictions can be "chaotic," that is, not tending toward an equilibrium point or limit cycle. Speculations about the ecological importance of chaotic behavior include: (1) Populations may vary in an unpredictable manner so tha...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American naturalist 1982-08, Vol.120 (2), p.259-263
Main Authors: O'Neill, R. V., Gardner, R. H., Weller, D. E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Chaos theory
Difference equations
Ecological modeling
Ecology
Ecosystems
Modeling
Notes and Comments
Population dynamics
Population ecology
Population growth rate
Statistical relevance model
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Summary:Interest has been shown in the dynamics of simple models whose predictions can be "chaotic," that is, not tending toward an equilibrium point or limit cycle. Speculations about the ecological importance of chaotic behavior include: (1) Populations may vary in an unpredictable manner so that long-term predictions may be impossible (May 1976). (2) Small changes in initial populations or growth rates can yield divergent predictions (Bunow and Weiss 1979). If these speculations are true, they have far-reaching consequences for ecological research and modeling. Evaluation of these results requires that model formulation, parameter values, and method of simulation be ecologically sound. The following observations seem relevant. (1) Values for the grwoth rate, r, must be biologically reasonable. (2) Parameter values of ecological models always contain uncertainty (Gardner et al. 1980). (3) Extinction is an ecological reality when predicted values are close to zero.
ISSN:0003-0147
1537-5323
DOI:10.1086/283986