Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia

• Published in: Energy economics 2012-12, Vol.34 (Supplement), p.S284-S292
• Main Authors: Blanford, Geoffrey J., Rose, Steven K., Tavoni, Massimo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Asia; Baseline scenarios; China (People's Republic); Economic development; Economics; Emissions projections; Energy policy; Energy sector; Fossil fuels; Income; India; Integrated assessment modeling; Technology
• ISSN: 0140-9883; 1873-6181
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.006

This paper analyzes the projected development of energy systems in the Asia region in the hypothetical absence of future carbon policies. Baseline scenarios prepared by participating teams in the Asia Modeling Exercise are used to generate a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of CO2 emissions for the next several decades, especially for China and India. We find a very wide range of projected emissions paths across the models and identify per capita income and energy intensity as the two major factors responsible for the variation. While the range of assumptions for growth in the former is roughly consistent with historical experience in other Asian economies, models foresee faster reductions in the latter with respect to those observed in neighboring countries at similar stages of economic development. On the other hand, there is a considerable agreement on the evolution of the energy technology mix, which is assumed to continue to be dominated by fossil fuels in the foreseeable future. ► Multi-model assessment of the major drivers of CO2 emissions in Asia. ► Energy use and emissions projections vary by a factor of two or more even by 2020. ► Assumptions about income and energy intensity are the most important determinants. ► Compared to history, projected income is similar, energy intensity declines faster. ► Carbon intensity of energy projected to remain roughly constant without new policy.