Application of the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method to the Caspian Sea conflict

This study proposes a promising allocation mechanism of the Caspian Sea natural resources, which are presently shared among five countries. To date, these nations have been unable to reach an allocation agreement. We apply a methodology to propose the most appropriate solution under different risk a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2014, Vol.28 (6), p.1359-1372
Main Authors: Mianabadi, Hojjat, Sheikhmohammady, Majid, Mostert, Erik, Van de Giesen, Nick
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aquatic Pollution
Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Computational Intelligence
Computer Science
Decision making
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environment
Math. Appl. in Environmental Science
Multiple criteria decision making
Natural resource management
Natural resources
Oceans
Original Paper
Physics
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
Risk assessment
Statistics for Engineering
Stochastic models
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:This study proposes a promising allocation mechanism of the Caspian Sea natural resources, which are presently shared among five countries. To date, these nations have been unable to reach an allocation agreement. We apply a methodology to propose the most appropriate solution under different risk attitudes of the states. This research is different from other studies regarding the Caspian Sea negotiations in that it employs risk-based fuzzy multi attribute decision making methods for simulating the risk attitudes or optimism/pessimism degrees of the decision makers. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) approach, which considers the optimism/pessimism degree quantitatively, is used to take into account the effects of different risk attitudes of the negotiators on the final outcome. We demonstrate how one could obtain a range of alternatives under different multi attribute and risk attitudes. The induced OWA (IOWA) method is also used to determine the relative power of these states bordering the Caspian Sea by considering several attributes, including different risk attitudes of agents. Results indicate that taking into account the risk attitude (prone, neutral, averse) of the states can affect the overall ranking of the proposed solutions. The findings from this study may facilitate negotiation regarding the most preferred allocation mechanism for the Caspian Sea.
ISSN:1436-3240
1436-3259
DOI:10.1007/s00477-014-0861-z