A stochastic model for the analysis of the temporal change of dry spells

In the present paper a stochastic approach which considers the arrival of rainfall events as a Poisson process is proposed to analyse the sequences of no rainy days. Particularly, among the different Poisson models, a non-homogeneous Poisson model was selected and then applied to the daily rainfall...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2015-01, Vol.29 (1), p.143-155
Main Authors: Sirangelo, B., Caloiero, T., Coscarelli, R., Ferrari, E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aquatic Pollution
Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Computational Intelligence
Computer Science
Computer simulation
Drying
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Ecological risk assessment
Environment
Gages
Gauges
Math. Appl. in Environmental Science
Monte Carlo simulation
Original Paper
Physics
Poisson distribution
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
Rain
Rain gauges
Rainfall
Statistics for Engineering
Stochastic models
Stochasticity
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:In the present paper a stochastic approach which considers the arrival of rainfall events as a Poisson process is proposed to analyse the sequences of no rainy days. Particularly, among the different Poisson models, a non-homogeneous Poisson model was selected and then applied to the daily rainfall series registered at the Cosenza rain gauge (Calabria, southern Italy), as test series. The aim was to evaluate the different behaviour of the dry spells observed in two different 30-year periods, i.e. 1951–1980 and 1981–2010. The analyses performed through Monte Carlo simulations assessed the statistical significance of the variation of the mean expected values of dry spells observed at annual scale in the second period with respect to those observed in the first. The model has then been verified by comparing the results of the test series with the ones obtained from other three rain gauges of the same region. Moreover, greater occurrence probabilities for long dry spells in 1981–2010 than in 1951–1980 were detected for the test series. Analogously, the return periods evaluated for fixed long dry spells through the synthetic data of the period 1981–2010 resulted less than half of the corresponding ones evaluated with the data generated for the previous 30-year period.
ISSN:1436-3240
1436-3259
DOI:10.1007/s00477-014-0904-5