Backward bifurcation analysis of epidemiological model with partial immunity

This paper presents a two stage SIS epidemiological model in animal population with bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in African buffalo as a guiding example. The proposed model is rigorously analyzed. The analysis reveals that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable diseas...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Computers & mathematics with applications (1987) 2014-11, Vol.68 (9), p.931-940
Main Authors: Anguelov, Roumen, Garba, Salisu M., Usaini, Salisu
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Backward bifurcation
Bifurcations
Bovine tuberculosis
Buffalo
Computer simulation
Effectiveness
Epidemiology
Mathematical models
Tuberculosis
Unity
Vaccine
Vaccines
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Summary:This paper presents a two stage SIS epidemiological model in animal population with bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in African buffalo as a guiding example. The proposed model is rigorously analyzed. The analysis reveals that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium (EE) when the associated reproduction number (Rv) is less than unity. It is shown under two special cases of the presented model, that this phenomenon of backward bifurcation does not arise depending on vaccination coverage and efficacy of vaccine. Numerical simulations of the model show that, the use of an imperfect vaccine can lead to effective control of the disease if the vaccination coverage and the efficacy of vaccine are high enough.
ISSN:0898-1221
1873-7668
DOI:10.1016/j.camwa.2014.06.010