Can a creeping segment become a monitor before destructive major earthquakes?

There are few places in the world to monitor aseismic creep. One of them is the Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault. The observations in the Ismetpasa showed that the creep rate progressively decreased along the 40 years before the 1999 Kocaeli-Golcuk (Mw = 7.6) earthquake and then starte...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2013-02, Vol.65 (3), p.2161-2173
Main Authors: Kutoglu, H. S., Gormus, K. S., Deguchi, T., Koksal, E., Kemaldere, H., Gundogdu, O.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Civil Engineering
Creep (materials)
Creep rate
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Earthquakes
Earthquakes, seismology
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Environmental Management
Environmental policy
Exact sciences and technology
Faults
Geodetics
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Global positioning systems
GPS
Hydrogeology
Internal geophysics
Monitors
Natural Hazards
Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc
Original Paper
Plate tectonics
Risk assessment
Segments
Seismic activity
Seismic phenomena
Technology
Warning
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Summary:There are few places in the world to monitor aseismic creep. One of them is the Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault. The observations in the Ismetpasa showed that the creep rate progressively decreased along the 40 years before the 1999 Kocaeli-Golcuk (Mw = 7.6) earthquake and then started increasing. This phenomenon might be a systematic of the creeping segments. If it is the case, this behavior can be utilized for early warning before the expected major earthquake in the Marmara Sea. In this study, the creep rate of the segment has been studied by GPS and InSAR technologies. The results showed that the rate has decreased to 1.3 cm a year. This result might be an indication of stress starting increase. If the segment retains the decreasing trend and it is ceased by a major earthquake, it would be a proof of the relationship between the creep process and the earthquakes. Then, the creep process might be utilized for early warning.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-012-0466-0