Can a creeping segment become a monitor before destructive major earthquakes?

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2013-02, Vol.65 (3), p.2161-2173
• Main Authors: Kutoglu, H. S., Gormus, K. S., Deguchi, T., Koksal, E., Kemaldere, H., Gundogdu, O.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Civil Engineering; Creep (materials); Creep rate; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Earthquakes; Earthquakes, seismology; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Environmental Management; Environmental policy; Exact sciences and technology; Faults; Geodetics; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Global positioning systems; GPS; Hydrogeology; Internal geophysics; Monitors; Natural Hazards; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Original Paper; Plate tectonics; Risk assessment; Segments; Seismic activity; Seismic phenomena; Technology; Warning
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0466-0

There are few places in the world to monitor aseismic creep. One of them is the Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault. The observations in the Ismetpasa showed that the creep rate progressively decreased along the 40 years before the 1999 Kocaeli-Golcuk (Mw = 7.6) earthquake and then started increasing. This phenomenon might be a systematic of the creeping segments. If it is the case, this behavior can be utilized for early warning before the expected major earthquake in the Marmara Sea. In this study, the creep rate of the segment has been studied by GPS and InSAR technologies. The results showed that the rate has decreased to 1.3 cm a year. This result might be an indication of stress starting increase. If the segment retains the decreasing trend and it is ceased by a major earthquake, it would be a proof of the relationship between the creep process and the earthquakes. Then, the creep process might be utilized for early warning.