ASYMMETRIC PHASE SHIFTS IN U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CYCLES

We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: tr...

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Published in:The review of economics and statistics 2015-03, Vol.97 (1), p.116-133
Main Authors: Chang, Yongsung, Hwang, Sunoong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Economic theory
Federal Reserve monetary policy
Government spending
Industrial production
Input output analysis
Macroeconomics
Manufacturers
Manufacturing
Manufacturing industry
Monetary policy
Oil price
Public expenditure
Studies
U.S.A
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description We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
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source EconLit s plnými texty; International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); Business Source Ultimate; JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection; MIT Press Journals
subjects Economic theory
Federal Reserve monetary policy
Government spending
Industrial production
Input output analysis
Macroeconomics
Manufacturers
Manufacturing
Manufacturing industry
Monetary policy
Oil price
Public expenditure
Studies
U.S.A
title ASYMMETRIC PHASE SHIFTS IN U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CYCLES
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