Hierarchical Monte Carlo modeling with S-distributions: Concepts and illustrative analysis of mercury contamination in king mackerel

The quantitative assessment of environmental contaminants is a complex process. It involves nonlinear models and the characterization of variables, factors, and parameters that are distributed and dependent on each other. Assessments based on point estimates are easy to perform, but since they are u...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environment international 1995-01, Vol.21 (5), p.627-635
Main Authors: Voit, Eberhard O., Leonard Balthis, W., Holser, Ronald A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agnatha. Pisces
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Applied ecology
Biological and medical sciences
Ecotoxicology, biological effects of pollution
Effects of pollution and side effects of pesticides on vertebrates
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Marine
scomberomorus cavalla
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The quantitative assessment of environmental contaminants is a complex process. It involves nonlinear models and the characterization of variables, factors, and parameters that are distributed and dependent on each other. Assessments based on point estimates are easy to perform, but since they are unreliable, Monte Carlo simulations have become a standard procedure. Simulations pose two challenges: They require the numerical characterization of parameter distributions and they do not account for dependencies between parameters. This paper offers strategies for dealing with both challenges. The first part discusses the characterization of data with the S-distribution. This distribution offers several advantages, which include simplicity of numerical analysis, flexibility in shape, and easy computation of quantiles. The second part outlines how the S-distribution can be used for hierarchical Monte Carlo simulations. In these simulations the selection of parameter values occurs sequentially, and each choice depends on the parameter values selected before. The method is illustrated with preliminary simulation analyses that are concerned with mercury contamination in king mackerel ( Scomberomorus cavalla). It is demonstrated that the results of such hierarchical simulations are generally different from those of traditional Monte Carlo simulations.
ISSN:0160-4120
1873-6750
DOI:10.1016/0160-4120(95)00067-U