PRYSM: An open‐source framework for PRoxY System Modeling, with applications to oxygen‐isotope systems

Paleoclimate observations constitute the only constraint on climate behavior prior to the instrumental era. However, such observations only provide indirect (proxy) constraints on physical variables. Proxy system models aim to improve the interpretation of such observations and better quantify their...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of advances in modeling earth systems 2015-09, Vol.7 (3), p.1220-1247
Main Authors: Dee, S., Emile‐Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Allam, A., Steig, E. J., Thompson, D.M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Archives & records
Calcite
Cellulose
Climate
Climate change
Climate studies
data‐model comparison¸ uncertainty analysis
Design
Detection
Frameworks
Ice cores
Isotopes
Modelling
Oxygen
Paleoclimate
Paleoclimate science
Precipitation
proxy system modeling
Sediments
Sensitivity analysis
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Summary:Paleoclimate observations constitute the only constraint on climate behavior prior to the instrumental era. However, such observations only provide indirect (proxy) constraints on physical variables. Proxy system models aim to improve the interpretation of such observations and better quantify their inherent uncertainties. However, existing models are currently scattered in the literature, making their integration difficult. Here, we present a comprehensive modeling framework for proxy systems, named PRYSM. For this initial iteration, we focus on water‐isotope based climate proxies in ice cores, corals, tree ring cellulose, and speleothem calcite. We review modeling approaches for each proxy class, and pair them with an isotope‐enabled climate simulation to illustrate the new scientific insights that may be gained from this framework. Applications include parameter sensitivity analysis, the quantification of archive‐specific processes on the recorded climate signal, and the quantification of how chronological uncertainties affect signal detection, demonstrating the utility of PRYSM for a broad array of climate studies. Key Points: A new modeling framework for paleoclimate proxies is proposed (PRYSM) PRYSM bridges the gap between GCMs and paleoclimate observations PRYSM may improve interpretation and uncertainty quantification of paleodata
ISSN:1942-2466
1942-2466
DOI:10.1002/2015MS000447