Retrospective Analyses and Future Predictions of Snowmelt-Induced Acidification:  Example from a Heavily Impacted Stream in the Czech Republic

We have combined a long-term hydrochemistry model (MAGIC) with a model that predicts short-term transient changes in hydrochemistry (pBDM) during hydrological events in order to improve the temporal resolution of retrospective analyses and future predictions of streamwater acidifica tion. The model...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science & technology 2005-05, Vol.39 (9), p.3197-3202
Main Authors: Laudon, H, Hruška, J, Köhler, S, Krám, P
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Acid Rain
Acidification
Applied sciences
Chemistry
Czech Republic
Disasters
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Emissions control
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Environmental science
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasting
Freshwater
Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
Natural water pollution
Pollution
Pollution, environment geology
Predictions
Rainwaters, run off water and others
Retrospective Studies
Seasons
Simulation
Snow
Stream water
Water treatment and pollution
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Summary:We have combined a long-term hydrochemistry model (MAGIC) with a model that predicts short-term transient changes in hydrochemistry (pBDM) during hydrological events in order to improve the temporal resolution of retrospective analyses and future predictions of streamwater acidifica tion. The model has been applied to a heavily impacted catchment in the Czech Republic. Spring flood acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), pH, and inorganic monomeric aluminum (Ali n +) were simulated for the years of 1860, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1965, and 1985, measured in 1999, and predicted for 2030 using two different emission control scenarios. If the emission reduction according to the current legislation scenario is implemented, the model predicts that the spring flood pH, ANC, and Ali n + will recover close to the level of the 1950s by 2030. This will occur despite the annual average chemistry being far from having recovered to that level. The results suggest that the recovery of spring flood events is faster then the recovery of annual average chemistry and that much of what is won by further emission reduction will not be fully realized on an annual time scale.
ISSN:0013-936X
1520-5851
DOI:10.1021/es0481575