Assessing the promise of biofortification: A case study of high provitamin A maize in Zambia

• Published in: Food policy 2015-07, Vol.54, p.65-77
• Main Authors: Lividini, Keith, Fiedler, John L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural commodities; Agricultural economics; Agricultural production; Biofortification; Consumption; Corn; Cost; Cost analysis; Cost control; Cost effectiveness; Costs; Crop production; DALYs; Demand analysis; Estimates; Farmers; Grain; Harvesting; Household consumption and expenditure surveys (HCES); Household surveys; Households; Impact analysis; Living conditions; Market structure; Micronutrient deficiency; Micronutrients; New varieties; Nutrient deficiency; Nutrition; Parameter identification; Policy analysis; Population studies; Production; Public health; Regression models; Retinene; Rural populations; Statistical analysis; Surveys; Vitamin A; Vitamin deficiency; Vitamins; Zambia
• ISSN: 0306-9192; 1873-5657
• DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.04.007

•We conduct a highly contextualized ex-ante analysis of biofortified maize in Zambia.•Farmers’ maximum adoption of biofortified maize reaches 20% after 30years.•Zambians’ inadequate vitamin A intake prevalence is reduced 3 percentage points.•Adopting farmers’ inadequate intake prevalence is reduced by 17.5 percentage points.•Biofortified pro-vitamin A maize’s discounted cost per DALY saved is $24. Biofortification is the breeding of new varieties of staple foods for increased micronutrient content. It is seen primarily as a complementary, rural-targeted strategy for better reaching remote populations. This paper presents an ex ante analysis of HarvestPlus’ provitamin A maize (PVAM) in Zambia and highlights an empirical approach based on the Zambian 2005/06 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS). Because more than 115 countries regularly conduct a Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HCES), the approach developed in this LCMS-based study can be applied in many other countries to analyze varietal adoption and conduct ex ante studies. Data from the LCMS and health statistics were used to characterize baseline indicators of vitamin A intake and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost. The introduction and scaling up of PVAM was modeled based on program plans, expert opinion and data on key adoption parameters. An adoption function was specified and expressed in terms of the percent of farmers expected to adopt PVAM over the next 30years. A logistic regression adoption function was estimated and used to identify the specific LCMS households adopting, producing and consuming PVAM each year. Information from the IFPRI International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) of yearly maize production and demand were used to produce annual estimates of PVAM planted, harvested and consumed. Taking into account an LCMS-empirically-informed, specified market structure, individuals’ additional vitamin A intake was calculated. The number of DALYs saved were estimated using the change in vitamin A intake. Combining these estimates with cost data, the cost-effectiveness of PVAM was calculated. Assuming an adoption ceiling of 20% over 30years, implementation of PVAM will result in average additional intake of 12% of the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR), a 3 percentage point reduction in the prevalence of inadequate intake, and savings of 23% of total DALYs. Impacts are concentrated among farming households that have adopte